2021 College Football - National Championship

2021 College Football - National Championship

WOW!  What a crazy year of College Football it has been!  Back in August of 2020 few people thought we would even have a College Football season much less have a National Championship game.  Thankfully, even with several COVID disruptions, the college season was able to be played and we are all being treated to what should be a wonderful Title game pitting the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Ohio State Buckeyes.

We will breakdown the CFP Title Game in detail (as well as each team’s previous games), but before we do let’s look at the current odds.

Current Odds for CFP Title Game: 

• Point Spread: Alabama is currently -8.5 over Ohio State
• Over/Under: The Total Points is currently 74.5

Sugar Bowl Recap:  Buckeyes Dominate Tigers

The Ohio State Buckeyes shocked the world, or at least a great number of college football fans, when they put a whipping on the Clemson Tigers.  Ohio State was a 7-point underdog in that contest and won handily by a margin of 21 points!  Buckeye Quarterback Justin Fields shook off a grueling hit to throw for 6 touchdowns in the contest and often made the highly hyped Clemson defense look like a JV squad!

Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney probably wishes he would NOT have been so outspoken about ranking the Buckeyes #11 in his Coaches Poll vote.  Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence did not play badly as he threw for 400 yards.  However, the biggest surprise was that Ohio State’s defense held All-American Running Back Travis Etienne to only 32 yards on the ground.  Can this Buckeye D put up a similar performance against Doak Walker Award winner Najee Harris?

Rose Bowl Recap:  Tide Rolls over Irish

The Alabama Crimson Tide had almost a “no-sweat” victory over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Rose Bowl.  Bama won by 17 points but failed to cover the (-20) point spread.  However, the outcome of the game was never really in doubt with the Tide leading 28-7 after 3 quarters.

Tide Quarterback Mac Jones had his typical ho-hum performance throwing for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns (ho-hum 😊).  Heisman winner DeVonta Smith caught 7 passes for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Tide offense kept rolling!  Can Bama keep the same offensive firepower that they have enjoyed all season long against the Ohio State defense? 

Breaking Down the CFP Title Game: Edges for Ohio State

Here are some of the areas that the Buckeyes may possess in this game below:

• Turnover Battle- Ohio State has been an immensely opportunistic football team when it comes to winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are often seen as impossible to predict.  However, according to the raw numbers, the Buckeyes have caused 2.6 takeaways per game vs. Alabama averaging 1.8 takeaways per game.  Ohio State’s turnover margin is also advantageous (+1.3 vs the Tide’s +0.9).  In what will possibly be a high scoring game, each possession will be crucial.  If the Buckeyes can get an extra takeaway or two, it would increase their chances of bringing home the trophy.

• Running the football- To say Buckeye Running Back Trey Sermon has “found his groove” would be the understatement of the year! Sermon has gone BONKERS in his last 2 outings.  The Oklahoma transfer set a new Ohio State record by rushing for an insane 331 yards in the Big 10 Title Game against Northwestern (who is no slouch on defense).  Sermon followed up that impressive performance with a 193-yard effort against Clemson.  Also, if we go strictly by the numbers Ohio State averages 6.0 yards per rush, while Bama averages 5.1 yards.  One intriguing gambling prop may be betting on Trey Sermon to go over OVER 99.5 yards rushing! 

• Freshness- Much has been made about Ohio State only having to win 7 total games to make it to the CFP Title Game. Whether you believe the Buckeyes deserve to be here or not is a separate issue.  However, we must admit that Ohio State is the much fresher football team here.  By only playing 7 ballgames, Ohio State (vs. Bama’s 12) should have much fresher legs and that edge may show up in the 4^th quarter in this matchup.

Breaking down the CFP Title Game:  Edges for Alabama

We have broken down some of the possible edges for the Buckeyes.  Now here are some possible edges for the Crimson Tide.

• Passing Game- Bama QB Mac Jones surprised most of the country this season by shredding every defense that he faced. Jones passed for over 4,000 yards and 36 touchdowns while leading the Tide to a perfect 12-0 record.  The Bama passing attack should match up extremely well against a putrid Ohio State pass defense that gave up almost 281 passing yards per game (this ranked 119^th in the nation).  A prop worth looking at could be Mac Jones Yards Passing OVER 365.5

• Coaching- Ryan Day is a heck of a football coach and a brilliant offensive mind. However, we cannot discount the value of the great Nick Saban.  If the Tide can pull out the victory, Saban will pass the legendary Paul “Bear” Bryant in number of National Titles won!  Coaching in these big games is business as usual for Saban, but it will be Coach Day’s first ever Title Game.  One must give the coaching edge to Bama because of this.

• Total Defense- Bama enjoys a huge statistical advantage in terms of overall defense. The Tide young secondary had plenty of struggles at times, but the Buckeyes secondary has looked completely lost in almost each game.  In fact, the Bama D only gives up 4.8 yards per play, while the Ohio State D gives up 5.3 yards per play.