Full Super Bowl LV Preview

Super Bowl LV Preview

Well football fans, we have made it to the pinnacle of all sports days:  Super Bowl Sunday!  When the awful pandemic started back in March, we were all unsure we would get this day.  We as sports fans are all grateful to be treated to what should be a fantastic matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!

We will breakdown Super Bowl LV in detail (as well dive into some interesting Prop Plays), but before we do let’s look at the current odds.

Current Odds for Super Bowl LV:

  • Point Spread: Kansas City is currently -3
  • Over/Under: The Total Points is currently 56
  • Game Time / TV: 6:30 Eastern Time on CBS


Recapping the Chiefs Road to the Super Bowl

The Kansas City Chiefs had a stellar regular season by posting a 14-2 record.  However, the Chiefs were not kind to their gambling backers as their ATS record is only 8-10 coming into Super Bowl LV.  Here is a brief recap of the Chiefs playoff wins.

  • After enjoying a 1st round bye, the Chiefs narrowly escaped on Jan 17th with a 5-point victory over the Cleveland Browns. All World QB Patrick Mahomes left the game due to an injured toe and a concussion after being hit by Browns LB Mack Wilson.  Backup QB Chad Henne made some of the biggest throws in his life to secure the victory for the Chiefs.  WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce both had over 100 receiving yards and the Chiefs defense was stingy all day against Baker Mayfield and the Browns.
  • There were whispers in the media that the Chiefs would have trouble with the Buffalo Bills due to Mahomes not being 100% healthy. Kansas City shut up those whispers with a dominating 14-point victory, winning 38-24.  The game was not even as close as the final score suggested.  The Chiefs dominated the rest of the game after a few gaffes put them in a 9-point hole after the first quarter.


How the Bucs Made it to the Super Bowl

The Tampa Bay (or TOMpa Bay LOL) Bucs did exactly what they set out to do when signing future Hall of Famer Tom Bray!  Head Coach Bruce Arians knew he had plenty of talent on the roster and was only a consistent QB away from a Super Bowl appearance.  The Bucs went 11-5 in the regular season and their betting supporters have been treated to a 11-8 record ATS.  Here is a brief recap of Tampa’s playoff run.

  • The Bucs failed to cover the large -10-point spread against the Washington Football Team. However, Tampa was in control of the whole game even though they only won by an 8-point margin.  Tom Brady had another epic performance by passing for 381 yards, while Playoff Lenny (Leonard Fournette) nearly rushed for 100!
  • Defense was the story in the Bucs victory over the Saints. In what may have been the swan song for Drew Brees, the Tampa D picked him off 3 times.  Overall, the Bucs enjoyed a +4-turnover margin, which was key in the contest.
  • Probably the most surprising victory for Tampa came last week at frigid Lambeau Field in Green Bay! The Bucs were around a 3-point underdog all week but won the game outright 31-26 over the Pack!  Brady threw for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Bucs D confused Aaron Rodgers most of the afternoon.

Interesting News and Notes from Super Week

This has probably been the most unique Super Week of all-time due to the pandemic.  Normally there is a ton of media hoopla that the players must endure each day during the week but that is not the case this year.  Nevertheless, here are some of the interesting stories and stats from Super Week.

  • Tampa Gets a Home Game- The Bucs have the good fortune of being the 1st ever team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. Getting to sleep in their own beds and keep their normal practice routine has to give Tampa at least a slight edge.
  • These Two Teams have met Already- The Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 lead back in Week 12 over the Bucs and never looked back. Brady worked some of his usual magic to get the Bucs within 3 points, but the Chiefs were victorious.
  • NFL honoring Healthcare Heroes- In what is a great gesture toward frontline healthcare workers, the NFL is giving away 7,500 free tickets to them for Super Bowl LV. This is possibly the best feel-good story of Super Week this year!


The 3 Plays & Props That We Are Playing Today:

As sports investors, we all love the Super Bowl because of the vast opportunities of plays and prop Wagers that are available to exploit. An estimated 7.6 million Americans are set to bet on this game through online Sportsbook alone!

Here are our 3 Plays for Today’s Super Bowl for FREE:

  • 1st HALF TOTAL: UNDER 27.5 (-110)This number stands out as we anticipate a lower-scoring 1st Half especially from Tom Brady & The Buccaneers. For one, in Brady’s previous nine super bowl appearances he has never led a touchdown drive in the First Quarter of any of them! Additionally, historically in the Super Bowl the 2nd Half has been known to be higher scoring than the 1st Half (34 out of 54 times thus far). Add in that the Chiefs rank in the Top-10 in Opponent’s 1st Half PPG at (11.2 per game) and you’ve got a recipe for a low scoring 1st Half from these two opponents here today.
  • Will There Be A 2-Point Conversion Attempt: YES (-120)The Andy Reid versus Bruce Arians aspect of the game comes into play here. Two aggressive coaching styles clash here today in Tampa Bay and we envision at least ONE attempt for a 2-point conversion at some point during the Big Game. We’ve seen 2-Point Conversion attempts increase this season relatively compared to prior years and can see one being attempted from either Brady or Mahomes in this matchup (especially in crunch time down the stretch) if things go astray. Additionally, missed extra points are seemingly more common since the distance of the kick has been moved back, and any missed XP’s today would almost certainly secure a chance for this prop to hit.
  • Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady (+250) - This one comes down to strictly being a tremendous value play. Think about it – currently the Buccaneers are +140 on the Moneyline to win this game outright. Factor in that MVP to be a QB is currently set at -500 and Brady’s value POPS OUT! Did you know that 5 Players have won the Super Bowl MVP Award multiple times and Tom Brady sits atop that list with 4 Total SB MVP awards. The sportsbooks have bounced around with Chiefs -3 or so all week long, essentially having this game very close to a pick-em opportunity (as most Super Bowls are). If you like the Buccaneers in this game, then Tom Brady to win MVP certainly stands out and provides some easy extra value given the number it is currently set at, as it is hard to envision Brady not winning MVP should the Buccaneers pull off an outright victory.


We appreciate your following and support!

Cheers to SUPER BOWL LV – Enjoy the Big Game with your friends and family today!


Article Contributed By: Mike Noblin
Twitter: @MikeNoblin
Youtube: Mikey Nobs
Plays Contributed By: Game Theory Picks

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